Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
